Most players
I come into contact with are extremely knowledgeable
about the bets and payoffs. Their basic strategy is to
make the lowest vig bets, press on every hit, or at best
every other hit, and build up the bets via a parlay of
the winnings. This would be a fantastic method if we
knew how long the roll would last. However, the seven
has a 1 in 6 chance of showing on any given roll thereby
ending that session and possibly leaving you with a huge
amount of chips on the table. Let’s take a quick look
at how a basic regression will improve your profits
versus the parlay strategy.
The dice are
tossed and a point of 5 is established. Fred throws out
a green chip and says “Six and eight please.” The
dealer tosses back $1 and sets up Fred’s $12 on each the
6 and 8. Sue tosses out two green and two red chips and
asks for a “30 dollar six and eight please.” Bets are
made and the dice are in action. First roll and eight
is the call. Fred is paid $14 and racks the chips. He
has $24 in play and $14 in the rack. Fred still has $10
at risk on the table. Sue is paid $35 and asks the
dealers to make her 6 and 8 look like $12 each. Sue has
$24 on the table and $35 in her rack. She has nothing
at risk at his point and is guaranteed an $11 win should
the shooter toss a 7 on the next roll. Sue is in a much
better position than Fred at this point.
Next roll is
a 9. Nothing happens to Fred’s and Sue’s bets. Next
roll is another 8. This is the second hit and Fred goes
into action. He takes his $14 winnings and tells the
dealer to press his bets, racking the extra $2. Fred
now has an $18 6 and 8 with $16 in the rack and $8 still
at risk. Sue does the same pressing her 6 and 8 $6
each. She now has locked up a $13 win for this shooter
and is still very much in the game. Should the seven
come on the next roll Fred will lose $8 for this shooter
and Sue will win $13. You can see how important that
first initial regression can be.
This example
is the most basic of regressions – make a high enough
initial wager so that after the first hit you can
regress back to the table minimum, or some other lower
amount on each number and lock up a profit. Now you are
insulated against the seven and can begin to press your
bets on each successive hit until the bets reach some
pre-determined amount and you make a second regression.
Remember, the average number of tosses before a seven
shows is between 3 and 5, so there may not be much time
to lock up any profit. Make sure you lock up that
profit as early as possible.
With the
concept of regressions and quickly taking money off the
table, let’s look at a few other betting strategies that
help to accomplish this goal. Here’s a regression
system on an inside bet. Start with $66 inside - $15 -
$18 - $18 - $15. First hit, rack the win and regress to
$22 inside. Second hit, rack the win and come down
altogether on the five and nine and make the six and
eight look like $12 each. Third hit - same bet. Press
every third hit from then on – first pressing the 6 and
8 to $18 each and then adding a $10 5 and 9. Continue by
adding a $10 4 and 10. Once you have $46 across you can
begin pressing the numbers again starting with the 6 and
8 until you have $120 across - $30 each 6 and 8, $20
each 5 and /9, and $10 each 4 and 10.
Speaking of
betting all the numbers, let’s try a full press at $160
across. Rack the first two hits and then take a steep
regression. First two hits are same bets – rack the
win. After the third hit make a steep regression to $32
across. At that point you would power press the
repeating numbers. I like to press every other hit,
racking some nice profit along the way. Remember
we are concentrating on getting as much money off the
table as possible while positioning ourselves to take
advantage of a continuing roll.
Let’s look at the numbers for the first three hits:
First
inside number hit pays $35 - same bet.
Second inside number hit pays $35 - same bet.
The four or ten roll and pay net $49. That’s a very
respectable $119 in winnings so far. But there is
still $160 on the table exposed to the seven.
Now regress to $32 across, thereby taking $87 off
the table and guaranteeing an $87 win.
Now for the power press on the repeating numbers…
Next hit on a six or eight pays $7
- drop $5 and take that number to $18.
Next hit on a five or nine pays $7 - drop $3 and take it
to $15.
Next hit on the four or ten pays $9 - drop $1 and take
it to $15.
After power
pressing the 3 numbers above, you are in a beautiful
position should the shooter continue to throw box
numbers and you have a $78 win locked up if the 7
shows. Not bad, eh?
So, to continue for a few more presses…
When an $18 six or eight hits it pays $21. Drop $3 and
press the number that hit up to $42. If you want to
press in pairs make the six and eight look like $24
each.
If the $15 five or nine hit the payout is $21. Drop $4
and take that number to $40.
If the $15 four or ten hit buy that number for the max
buy you can get for a $1 vig - depending on the casino
it may be $25, $30, or $39.
Some times one number may be rolling out of proportion
to the others. If you see that you have more than $160
in action on all of the box numbers you have a few
options.
Leave
the bets as they are or rebalance the bets to $160
across.
Take another steep regression and
lock up additional profit and start the progression
again.
Don’t press anymore and continue
to rack the winnings.
Continue power pressing until the
hand ends.
My
suggestion, since I am concentrating on getting money
off the table, is to take another regression, lock up a
very nice profit, and start the progression again from
$32 across.
Some players
around you may comment negatively on your steep
regressions, but be assured that when the dealers catch
on to what you are doing, they will smile in
agreement.
Finally I
can’t overemphasize that you practice these strategies
so you are familiar and comfortable with the
progressions and regressions before entering into actual
play n the casino.
Now for a
quick casino trip update…
I was headed
to Carmine’s restaurant in Tropicana’s Quarter for a
Christmas party so I though I get in a quick session at
one of Trops tables. It was Wednesday evening, about 7
pm and three tables were open. None were full and the
$5 table had SL1 open with only 5 other players.
Looking at the chips in the rack and the lack of
players, I figured the table was trending on the cool
side. I didn’t have much time to chart the table as I
had only about an hour to play before dinner so I would
tip toe in on the dark side and see what happens.
I bought in
when the current shooter sevened out and got my chips
just as the next shooter passed the dice to me. Well
since I’m now shooting I might as well make a pass line
bet and see what develops. Set the point of 4 – where
did that come from? Five rolls later and no paying box
numbers up came the seven. Furthermore, I was
concentrating on my toss and I forgot to do my
regression after the third toss so now I’m in the hole
$76 and the dice pass to the next shooter. Now I’m on
the Don’t Pass with $15 and a point of 10. I toss out a
$10 Don’t Come bet and it travels to the 9 on the next
roll only to get picked off two rolls later. It took
three more rolls until my DP wager paid off. Table
continues cold through the next three shooters as I
recoup some of my loses with dark side wagers and I get
the dice back.
$7 on the
Pass Line, set the all sevens and toss an 8 – what’s up
with that? Double odds and a $12 6/8 and I’m ready to
toss again. A six rolls and it is same bet – I’m still
going very conservative. Next roll is an 8 – I get paid
and toss the dealers the extra white chips. I’ll
usually put $2 on my pass line bet and $2 on my odds
bet. The winnings from these bets are for the dealers.
It usually works out where I keep the $4 bets and toss
them the $5 in winnings and everyone is happy.
Especially as I was the only one toking the dealers.
And it certainly paid off as I threw for almost two
stick changes and had several dead cat tosses with nary
a blink from the dealers. I found a nice soft spot in
the table and an easy toss to that spot usually resulted
in at least one die sticking to the table, if not both.
Again, I was
concentrating on my toss and hitting that spot that I
forgot to press my bets as much as I would have liked.
Fortunately, I was also making a few come bets with odds
so I was usually taking some money off the table after
each toss. The roll finally ended while trying to make
the 5th point. The dice passed to the next shooter who
went point-seven so fast that I was still counting my
chips and didn’t even get a bet onto the table. It was
just a good as it was now 8 pm and time to head for
dinner – color coming in. For this session I almost hit
my loss limit on that first toss of mine which is a big
blunder as I missed my regression opportunity (that
alone cost me $36!). Fortunately, I was able to recover
on the next round with the dice and left a winner this
time.
